Republican Primary Voters – Where to Find Them #2



As part of our continuing coverage of the Republican mayoral primary, we look at Republican voter registration by council district.*

The most basic challenge for all of the Republican candidates is finding and reaching their potential primary voters.  Those potential primary voters are a small minority in the city, comprising 10% of all registered voters and only 6% of the total population.  They are outnumbered by registered Democrats by more than 6 to 1.

That small universe is nearly sealed at this point.  New voters may register as Republicans and vote in the primary, but currently registered voters who are not presently registered Republicans can’t vote in this year’s Republican primary, even if they change their registration.  Candidates therefor have a nearly set universe of potential voters.

Here are a few observations:

  • There is a strong concentration of registered Republicans in a fairly small number of districts.  The top 13 districts, out of the 51 total districts, contain almost half of registered Republicans.  The top five districts contain 25% of registered Republicans.
  • Staten Island has the two highest enrollment totals, Districts 51 (Ignizio) and 50 (Oddo), and three of the top seven.  (District 50 includes about 1,150 Kings County registered Republicans.  Even without those Kings County voters, it remains as the second-largest Republican registration district.)
  • District 51 is the only district in which registered Republicans outnumber Democrats.
  • The districts of the four Republican council members, expected to endorse Joe Lhota today, contain over 96,000 registered Republicans.  Those four districts account for 19.7% of the total Republican registration.
  • Districts 4 and 5, held by Democrats Dan Garodnick and Jessica Lapin, respectively, provide a concentrated Manhattan lode of over 40,000 registered Republicans.  (That may explain the Catsimatidis season-opening robocall I received.)
  • Manhattan districts 6 and 3, held by Gail Brewer and Christine Quinn, respectively, are 11th and 16th on the list.  Each of those districts has more Republicans than the district currently held by Peter Koo, who was elected as a Republican.
Here is the full list, by district:
Distr. Member Boro Reg’d Rs
51 Ignizio SI 36,256
50 Oddo SI 27,274
4 Garodnick M 22,086
5 Lappin M 19,645
43 Gentile Bk 18,636
19 Halloran Q 18,355
49 Rose SI 16,715
30 Crowley Q 15,512
32 Ulrich Q 14,535
48 Nelson Bk 13,943
6 Brewer M 13,520
13 Vacca Bx 13,249
47 Recchia Bk 12,887
46 Fidler Bk 12,676
23 Weprin Q 12,474
3 Quinn M 12,145
44 Greenfield Bk 11,895
29 Koslowitz Q 11,815
1 Chin M 10,721
24 Gennaro Q 10,198
2 Mendez M 9,857
20 Koo Q 8,647
26 Van Bramer Q 8,477
39 Lander Bk 8,450
22 Vallone Q 8,206
33 Levin Bk 7,849
25 Dromm Q 7,679
11 Koppell Bx 7,534
38 Gonzalez Bk 5,975
8 Mark-Viverito M 5,815
34 Reyna Bk 5,436
7 Jackson M 5,153
18 Palma Bx 4,786
9 Dickens M 4,588
28 Wills Q 4,553
37 Dilan Bk 4,493
31 Richards Q 4,464
10 Rodriguez M 4,433
35 James Bk 4,332
21 Ferreras Q 4,168
42 Barron Bk 4,074
45 Williams Bk 4,017
17 Arroyo Bx 3,974
15 Rivera Bx 3,811
12 King Bx 3,707
14 Cabrera Bx 3,602
27 Comrie Q 3,592
16 Foster Bx 3,514
40 Eugene Bk 3,330
36 Vann Bk 3,246
41 Mealy Bk 3,168
Total 489,467

*  We’ve used 4/1/12 enrollment statistics, as available on the New York City Board of Elections website.  (Note that the total number of registered Republicans on 4/1/12 per the City BOE is 489,467, while the New York State Board of Elections lists total 485,872 enrolled Republicans as of that date.  We’re still trying to reconcile the two different numbers.)

Be sure to read our first analysis of Republican registration, here.

In a future post, we’ll look at Republican voter turnout.