Trump Town Hall (Updated)

Trump NH 8-19-15-19The vocal plurality is the new silent majority.   Donald Trump began his town hall Wednesday evening declaring to a cheering audience filling an 800 seat theater in Derry, New Hampshire, that the “silent majority is back”.  Public polls show him leading the splintered field with a plurality rather than a majority, and his audience was not by any means silent, but his apt characterization of the “silent majority” fits.

Press Conference:  Trump held a press conference just before the town hall, jousting with reporters for about 25 minutes on a variety of topics including immigration and the term “anchor baby”, Jeb Bush and a smorgasbord of other Republican candidates, the Iran nuclear deal, his personal health and Donald J. Trump.  Trump, a New York tabloid staple for decades, displayed his skill in dealing with reporters as he criticized and occasionally complimented them while providing voluminous material.  Here’s his full press conference:

Town Hall:

“No more music! We want Trump!”  The crowd grew restless as the show was delayed more than 30 minutes, rising in unison to cheer their hero when he finally arrived.  Opening with a declaration that “the silent majority is back”, Trump spoke for about 50 minutes, responding to seven audience questions.  Slamming Jeb Bush, with some Rubio, Walker and Clinton critiques, Trump ruminated on the state of the nation (bad), the American military (great, mistreated, going to be greater), Iraq (a Bush-created mess), Mexico (cunning leaders), the press (largely dishonest) and his own finances and candidate financial report (I’m sort of a bragger … spectacular … I did a great job).  His audience appeared to greatly enjoy it, laughing and clapping with frequent shoutouts of support.

There was age but not racial diversity in the audience.  It appeared to be entirely white, but with a decent percentage of teenagers and fairly young adults and a mix of ages above that.  The audience appeared neither wealthy nor poor, instead looking like people just home from work.  The vibe matched Trump’s “silent majority” comment, with a feeling of anger and frustration that someone else is getting the benefit of their own work.  Paradoxically, Trump’s fortune and fame come from building homes and offices for those high-end takers; the Wall Street and business titans whose own fortunes grow out of this audience’s work and, sometimes, out of firing American workers in favor of increased automation or lower-cost foreign labor.  Trump transcends the logic that would lead to associating him with those high-end takers, however, viscerally connecting with the anger and frustration of his audience.  An experienced performer, Trump empathetically mined his audience connection, mixing in jokes and complaints.

In his April appearance at the New Hampshire Republican Party’s Leadership Summit Trump entered and exited to the theme from his TV show Celebrity Apprentice, which begins with the words “Money Money Money Money Money.”  In a mark of the evolution of his campaign, Trump exited this town hall to the sounds of Twisted Sister’s anthem We’re Not Gonna Take It.

Here’s the full town hall:

Update – Photo Gallery:  Our photo gallery is here.

Trump flips a newly-signed copy of his book back to a fan.
Trump flips a newly-signed copy of his book back to a fan.

Bush Town Hall (Updated)

The remote Jeb v. Trump battle continued today, with Jeb Bush responding to Donald Trump’s criticism during a town hall and while speaking with press afterwards.

Town Hall:  Bush spoke to a mostly receptive audience.  Here’s his full town hall:

Press Q&A:  Bush had a contentious exchange with the press, largely focused on immigration and Donald Trump.  It also included several exchanges over use of the term “anchor baby.” The press conference ended with reporters trailing Bush to his car.

Here’s Bush’s full press conference:

Photo Gallery:  Our Bush town hall photo gallery is here.

Kasich Town Hall (Updated)

Ohio Governor John Kasich drew about 100 people to a town hall meeting in Salem New Hampshire Wednesday afternoon, continuing his rising presidential primary prospects.

Town Hall:

Kasich was well-received, beginning with an engaging description of his childhood and young adulthood and moving smoothly into his time in Congress.  He has a distinct story, with substantial experience in both state and federal elected office.  (While Marco Rubio and Bobby Jindal have also held state and federal office, neither’s experience matches Kasich’s.)  While virtually all of the other candidates, even those who currently serve there, attack “Washington”, Kasich touts his past success in Congress and plausibly argues that such past success demonstrates an ability to overcome Washington gridlock.  Here is Kasich’s full town hall:

Press Q&A:  Kasich spoke with the press afterwards, touting his rising poll numbers and displaying a bit of his idiosyncratic personality.  Here’s his gaggle:

IMG_4452Photo Gallery:  Our town hall photo gallery is here.

Dominican Day Parade Photo Gallery

Visit our Dominican Day Parade photo gallery, available here.  A few of the photos are below.

There’s plenty of past rivalries and friction to unwind in this photo of Espaillat, Rangel, Schneiderman and Cuomo.  Dominican Day Parade breakfast host Adriano Espaillat has twice lost to Rep.  Charles Rangel, but they now appear to have a good relationship.  Governor Cuomo and AG Schneiderman have long had friction but now are cooperating.  Cuomo endorsed Rangel over Espaillat in the 2014 congressional primary, but endorsed Espaillat over a Rangel-allied challenger in the 2014 state senate primary.  Espaillat honored Cuomo at this breakfast.

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There were many smiles and laughs, captured here with Council Members Espinal, Ferreras and King, NYS Senators Espaillat and Peralta, NYS AG Schneiderman and NYC Comptroller Stringer.

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Our full photo gallery is here.

Cuomo Gaggles: The Peacemaker Edition

Governor Andrew Cuomo went from percussionist to peacemaker today, as he calmed press corps conflict during a chaotic start to the Dominican Day Parade.  The parade starting point was disorganized, becoming a bit chaotic as press and parade participants swirled around the designated parade start, waiting for the governor, mayor and other electeds but repeatedly ordered to move in different directions by the NYPD and parade organizers.  The press waited for the governor’s scheduled press Q&A, watching as the parade began and other electeds stepped off.  Cuomo then arrived and began walking past the waiting press and toward the parade.  As the governor noticed the press and stopped some pushing ensued, with the governor injecting a bit of calm.

Mayor de Blasio waited for the governor to conclude his press Q&A and depart before appearing for the parade.  He did not take any questions at the start of the parade.

Espaillat On de Blasio’s Absence

NYS Senator Adriano Espaillat hosted a pre-parade breakfast this morning featuring all city and statewide electeds, save one.  Governor Cuomo, NYS Comptroller TomDiNapoli, NYS AG Eric Schneiderman, NYC Public Advocate Tish James, NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer and NYC Council Speaker Melissa Mark-Viverito were among the attendees, but Mayor Bill de Blasio did not attend.  Afterwards I asked Senator Espaillat whether he had invited Mayor de Blasio – here’s what he had to say.

Presidential Pool: First Out?

IMG_3616It can’t last.  It won’t last.  The 17 candidate Republican primary field will shrink of course, the unknown is when and in what order.  Give us your best guess for the following three questions:

1)  Which of the 17 “major” Republican candidates will be the first to end his/her campaign?

2)  How many of these 17 candidates will still be in the race (actively campaigning) on the day of the New Hampshire primary?

3)  Who will win the Republican presidential nomination?

Email your guesses here, or tweet me at @jjk607.

Candidate Withdrawal Date
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Rick Perry
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
Scott Walker

 

Buddy The Cat (Updated)

Buddy the Cat is running for president.  Four “candidates” yesterday joined the ranks of those filing with the Federal Election Commission as 2016 presidential candidates, including Scott Walker and “Buddy the Cat.”  Including Buddy the Cat, there are now 545 declared 2016 presidential candidates.  (There’s no word on whether Pataki the Cat will join Buddy.)

It’s unclear whether the FEC will permit the “Buddy the Cat” filing to remain.  We’ve emailed the FEC with that question – we’ll update you when we hear back from them.

Update:  The FEC did not directly answer my question of whether the Commission would take any affirmative steps to review or investigate that filing.  A Commission rep replied more generally, stating that “the Reports Analysis Division (RAD) of the FEC reviews reports to ensure compliance with federal campaign finance laws and Commission regulations. If there appears to be any potential issues of noncompliance, RAD may send the filer a letter, called a Request for Additional Information (RFAI), to seek clarification or corrective action.”  Buddy the Cat’s filing remains on the FEC website as of August 21st.

N.B.  Here’s a look at the names the 17 “major” Republican candidates filed under and whether they’re complying with the legal requirements.

What’s In A Name (Updated)

“Name of Candidate (in full).” It seems like a simple instruction, but some of the 17 “major” Republican candidates were not able to comply with that simple directive on the Federal Election Commission form required of all presidential candidates.

Federal election law requires that every person running for president file a “Form 2 Statement of Candidacy”, listing their name, address, party affiliation and the name of their campaign committee.  It’s a one page form, as simple as it sounds.  A look at the 17 “major”declared Republican candidates revealed varying compliance with that directive.

Continue reading What’s In A Name (Updated)

He’s A Candidate – Walker Files (Updated)

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker today filed his formal “Statement of Candidacy” with the Federal Election Commission.  Although Walker made an announcement speech on July 13th and had separately created his campaign committee on July 2nd, he did not appear to have filed the “Form 2 – Statement of Candidacy” that candidates are required to file within 15 days of becoming a candidate.

In a review this week of the 17 “major” Republican candidates’ Form 2s, I noted that the FEC website contained 16 such forms, but none for Walker.  In an initial response the Walker campaign responded that they had filed a letter in lieu of the actual form.  From my reading of the relevant statue that’s permitted for candidates who do not expect to raise or spend more than $50,000, criteria that Walker did not meet.  (The FEC website did not include an image of any such letter filed by Walker.)

The FEC website now includes a Scott Walker Form 2 – Statement of Candidacy dated today, August 5, 2015.

 

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