Category Archives: 2016 Presidential Race

Pataki Soldiers On



IMG_4518George Pataki returned yet again to New Hampshire Thursday and Friday, working to keep his presidential campaign alive.  Campaigning in New Hampshire since January, his candidacy has yet to catch on and he faces a difficult path to remaining in the race, much less moving up substantially in the crowded field.

He’s genial and eager to talk, but draws small audiences.  In appearances on Thursday he received a polite and inquisitive reception at a presentation organized by the Derry Chamber of Commerce and had a pleasant time talking with a smattering of afternoon shoppers at a farmers market in Manchester.  His staff cancelled a late afternoon walk around downtown Concord, however.  (He also held a candidate meet and greet in Salem, which I did not attend.)

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Continue reading Pataki Soldiers On

Pataki On Trump



George Pataki continued his condemnation of Donald Trump today, launching into criticism during a campaign appearance in Derry, New Hampshire.  Speaking to an audience of about 30 people, Pataki’s comments drew applause.

Pataki has repeatedly criticized Trump in recent days, appearing on cable networks and managing to instigate a Twitter spat between himself and Trump.  During Pataki’s gubernatorial years he and Trump were allies, or at least peaceful co-existors, but that’s changed as the two run against each other.  With Trump at the top of the polls and Pataki near the bottom, Pataki has sought to distinguish himself from the rest of the Republican field with vigorous attacks on Trump.

Pataki On D’Amato



Meh.

That was George Pataki’s response to news that former senator Al D’Amato, his longtime political friend and patron, endorsed rival presidential candidate John Kasich.  It was D’Amato who in 1994 proposed Pataki as a possible gubernatorial candidate, launching the then-obscure state senator on the path to defeating the seemingly invincible Mario Cuomo and his own three terms as governor.

An inside player working as a lobbyist and long out of office, D’Amato is not exactly a big-ticket endorsement but it must nonetheless sting for Pataki.  Kasich got some press attention from the endorsement and it added to the sense of Kasich gaining momentum.  Kasich and Carly Fiorina have filled the space that Pataki seeks, the back-of-the pack candidate on an upward spiral of interest, attention and support, and each positive moment for them reduces the already limited prospect of Pataki going on a similar rise.

We asked Pataki about that endorsement today at a campaign event in Derry, New Hampshire.  Here’s what he had to say:

Bush On VP Selection



“A president is a decider.”  That was part of Jeb Bush’s answer when asked about a possible vice presidential selection.  Terming it “an important decision”, Bush emphasized the general principle of selecting a running mate “qualified” to be president and who works well with the presidential nominee.  He noted that some presidential/vice presidential candidate pairings have “kinda gotten ugly”, but did not identify any such pairings.  He lauded the Ronald Reagan/George H.W. Bush team, but did not mention George W. Bush and Dick Cheney.

He also threw in a few jabs at Donald Trump, saying that “you win when you campaign like this” while spreading his arms, adding “you don’t win when you’re campaigning like this” while wagging his finger.  In case his point wasn’t clear, Bush added “[y]ou don’t win when you’re the large dog in the room, when it’s all about you … how great you are … how rich you are.”

Bush spoke at a recent town hall meeting in Keene, New Hampshire.

Trump Town Hall (Updated)



Trump NH 8-19-15-19The vocal plurality is the new silent majority.   Donald Trump began his town hall Wednesday evening declaring to a cheering audience filling an 800 seat theater in Derry, New Hampshire, that the “silent majority is back”.  Public polls show him leading the splintered field with a plurality rather than a majority, and his audience was not by any means silent, but his apt characterization of the “silent majority” fits.

Press Conference:  Trump held a press conference just before the town hall, jousting with reporters for about 25 minutes on a variety of topics including immigration and the term “anchor baby”, Jeb Bush and a smorgasbord of other Republican candidates, the Iran nuclear deal, his personal health and Donald J. Trump.  Trump, a New York tabloid staple for decades, displayed his skill in dealing with reporters as he criticized and occasionally complimented them while providing voluminous material.  Here’s his full press conference:

Town Hall:

“No more music! We want Trump!”  The crowd grew restless as the show was delayed more than 30 minutes, rising in unison to cheer their hero when he finally arrived.  Opening with a declaration that “the silent majority is back”, Trump spoke for about 50 minutes, responding to seven audience questions.  Slamming Jeb Bush, with some Rubio, Walker and Clinton critiques, Trump ruminated on the state of the nation (bad), the American military (great, mistreated, going to be greater), Iraq (a Bush-created mess), Mexico (cunning leaders), the press (largely dishonest) and his own finances and candidate financial report (I’m sort of a bragger … spectacular … I did a great job).  His audience appeared to greatly enjoy it, laughing and clapping with frequent shoutouts of support.

There was age but not racial diversity in the audience.  It appeared to be entirely white, but with a decent percentage of teenagers and fairly young adults and a mix of ages above that.  The audience appeared neither wealthy nor poor, instead looking like people just home from work.  The vibe matched Trump’s “silent majority” comment, with a feeling of anger and frustration that someone else is getting the benefit of their own work.  Paradoxically, Trump’s fortune and fame come from building homes and offices for those high-end takers; the Wall Street and business titans whose own fortunes grow out of this audience’s work and, sometimes, out of firing American workers in favor of increased automation or lower-cost foreign labor.  Trump transcends the logic that would lead to associating him with those high-end takers, however, viscerally connecting with the anger and frustration of his audience.  An experienced performer, Trump empathetically mined his audience connection, mixing in jokes and complaints.

In his April appearance at the New Hampshire Republican Party’s Leadership Summit Trump entered and exited to the theme from his TV show Celebrity Apprentice, which begins with the words “Money Money Money Money Money.”  In a mark of the evolution of his campaign, Trump exited this town hall to the sounds of Twisted Sister’s anthem We’re Not Gonna Take It.

Here’s the full town hall:

Update – Photo Gallery:  Our photo gallery is here.

Trump flips a newly-signed copy of his book back to a fan.
Trump flips a newly-signed copy of his book back to a fan.

Bush Town Hall (Updated)



The remote Jeb v. Trump battle continued today, with Jeb Bush responding to Donald Trump’s criticism during a town hall and while speaking with press afterwards.

Town Hall:  Bush spoke to a mostly receptive audience.  Here’s his full town hall:

Press Q&A:  Bush had a contentious exchange with the press, largely focused on immigration and Donald Trump.  It also included several exchanges over use of the term “anchor baby.” The press conference ended with reporters trailing Bush to his car.

Here’s Bush’s full press conference:

Photo Gallery:  Our Bush town hall photo gallery is here.

Kasich Town Hall (Updated)



Ohio Governor John Kasich drew about 100 people to a town hall meeting in Salem New Hampshire Wednesday afternoon, continuing his rising presidential primary prospects.

Town Hall:

Kasich was well-received, beginning with an engaging description of his childhood and young adulthood and moving smoothly into his time in Congress.  He has a distinct story, with substantial experience in both state and federal elected office.  (While Marco Rubio and Bobby Jindal have also held state and federal office, neither’s experience matches Kasich’s.)  While virtually all of the other candidates, even those who currently serve there, attack “Washington”, Kasich touts his past success in Congress and plausibly argues that such past success demonstrates an ability to overcome Washington gridlock.  Here is Kasich’s full town hall:

Press Q&A:  Kasich spoke with the press afterwards, touting his rising poll numbers and displaying a bit of his idiosyncratic personality.  Here’s his gaggle:

IMG_4452Photo Gallery:  Our town hall photo gallery is here.

Presidential Pool: First Out?



IMG_3616It can’t last.  It won’t last.  The 17 candidate Republican primary field will shrink of course, the unknown is when and in what order.  Give us your best guess for the following three questions:

1)  Which of the 17 “major” Republican candidates will be the first to end his/her campaign?

2)  How many of these 17 candidates will still be in the race (actively campaigning) on the day of the New Hampshire primary?

3)  Who will win the Republican presidential nomination?

Email your guesses here, or tweet me at @jjk607.

Candidate Withdrawal Date
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Rick Perry
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
Scott Walker

 

Buddy The Cat (Updated)



Buddy the Cat is running for president.  Four “candidates” yesterday joined the ranks of those filing with the Federal Election Commission as 2016 presidential candidates, including Scott Walker and “Buddy the Cat.”  Including Buddy the Cat, there are now 545 declared 2016 presidential candidates.  (There’s no word on whether Pataki the Cat will join Buddy.)

It’s unclear whether the FEC will permit the “Buddy the Cat” filing to remain.  We’ve emailed the FEC with that question – we’ll update you when we hear back from them.

Update:  The FEC did not directly answer my question of whether the Commission would take any affirmative steps to review or investigate that filing.  A Commission rep replied more generally, stating that “the Reports Analysis Division (RAD) of the FEC reviews reports to ensure compliance with federal campaign finance laws and Commission regulations. If there appears to be any potential issues of noncompliance, RAD may send the filer a letter, called a Request for Additional Information (RFAI), to seek clarification or corrective action.”  Buddy the Cat’s filing remains on the FEC website as of August 21st.

N.B.  Here’s a look at the names the 17 “major” Republican candidates filed under and whether they’re complying with the legal requirements.

What’s In A Name (Updated)



“Name of Candidate (in full).” It seems like a simple instruction, but some of the 17 “major” Republican candidates were not able to comply with that simple directive on the Federal Election Commission form required of all presidential candidates.

Federal election law requires that every person running for president file a “Form 2 Statement of Candidacy”, listing their name, address, party affiliation and the name of their campaign committee.  It’s a one page form, as simple as it sounds.  A look at the 17 “major”declared Republican candidates revealed varying compliance with that directive.

Continue reading What’s In A Name (Updated)

He’s A Candidate – Walker Files (Updated)



Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker today filed his formal “Statement of Candidacy” with the Federal Election Commission.  Although Walker made an announcement speech on July 13th and had separately created his campaign committee on July 2nd, he did not appear to have filed the “Form 2 – Statement of Candidacy” that candidates are required to file within 15 days of becoming a candidate.

In a review this week of the 17 “major” Republican candidates’ Form 2s, I noted that the FEC website contained 16 such forms, but none for Walker.  In an initial response the Walker campaign responded that they had filed a letter in lieu of the actual form.  From my reading of the relevant statue that’s permitted for candidates who do not expect to raise or spend more than $50,000, criteria that Walker did not meet.  (The FEC website did not include an image of any such letter filed by Walker.)

The FEC website now includes a Scott Walker Form 2 – Statement of Candidacy dated today, August 5, 2015.