Category Archives: 2016 Presidential Race

Kasich On Puerto Rico Fiscal Crisis



Kasich - Keene, NH 12-29-15Ohio Governor John Kasich punted on the topic of whether Puerto Rico should be given the legal authority to file for bankruptcy protection.  Puerto Rico, overwhelmed by more than $70 billion of debt owed by the Commonwealth and some of its agencies and municipalities, is seeking the ability to file a bankruptcy petition.  Current law precludes Puerto Rico, as well all of the states, from filing a bankruptcy petition.  Unlike states however, which may authorize their municipalities and agencies to file petitions under Chapter 9 of the federal bankruptcy code, Puerto Rico is also precluded from allowing its municipalities and agencies from filing bankruptcy petitions.  With the first significant default on Puerto Rico’s debt having just occurred, the situation is likely to rapidly deteriorate.

Kasich initially referenced Puerto Rico’s status by saying that bankruptcy would require statehood.  That’s not quite right, however, and allowing Puerto Rico to be treated like a state (i.e. permitted to authorize its municipalities and agencies to file, but not itself authorized to file) would only require a very simple (albeit consequential) change in the federal bankruptcy code.  Kasich’s brief response then moved to a quick statement that he would put “people in a room” to discuss solutions and concluding that he’s “not prepared to say… yet” that bankruptcy is an appropriate solution.

The day after our conversation Kasich’s campaign announced the selection of a “chair for Governor Kasich’s newly created Puerto Rico team.”*  The announcement references “the importance of permanently resolving Puerto Rico’s status issue” (whether continuing as a commonwealth, becoming a state or an independent nation), but makes no mention of Puerto Rico’s fiscal crisis.  While status seems likely to be discusses as part of any federal action on bankruptcy or otherwise dealing with Puerto Rico’s debt, it’s a distinct topic without direct bearing on the fiscal crisis.

I spoke with Kasich following a presidential campaign town hall in Keene, New Hampshire.

 

Note:  Puerto Rico does not participate in the presidential general election, but presidential primaries are held in Puerto Rico.

Kasich Of The North



Ohio Governor John Kasich ribbed an absent Jeb Bush this evening, noting Bush’s cancellation of a town hall in Peterborough, New Hampshire due to snow.  Kasich held a town hall this afternoon in Nashua, New Hampshire, driving through Peterborough on his way to an evening town hall in Keene.  (I drove the same route, encountering a few inches of snow and some slick surfaces but finding it completely passable.)

Here’s what Kasich had to say, both as he concluded his town hall and when I spoke with him afterwards.

Kasich Q&A



Tamir Rice dominated Ohio Governor John Kasich’s post-town hall press Q&A this afternoon in Nashua, New Hampshire.  The 12 year old boy was killed last year by a Cleveland police officer and the announcement that the officer will not be criminally charged has sparked protests and outrage from many people.  As Ohio governor Kasich is not directly involved in the case, but it’s a major issue in his state.

Kasich urged calm, voiced respect for the right to protest and described steps he’s taken in the aftermath of the November 2014 shooting.  Kasich said that he intends to review standards and training for police dispatchers.  When asked, Kasich stated that he has no immediate plans to return to Ohio.  He’s been campaigning in New Hampshire for the past couple of days and heads to Florida this evening for a family vacation.

Trump In Nashua (Updated)



Trump Nashua, NH 12-28-15He came, he mused, he communed.

Donald Trump came to a rally in Nashua, New Hampshire Monday night, musing on the state of the country, communing with his audience over their anger at lots of things and urging his audience to vote in the upcoming primary even though he wasn’t quite certain of the date.

While he drew a smaller crowd than at some of his past events Trump nonetheless had a large crowd.  Held in a middle school gym the rally drew about 700-800 people, including 150 or so in an overflow room.  For comparison, that total roughly equals the total audiences at five separate candidate town halls I attended last Sunday and Monday (with Carson, Christie, Rubio, Kasich and Bush).

Trump Nashua, NH 12-28-15

Continue reading Trump In Nashua (Updated)

Glass Steagall, Crimes & A “Dirtbag” (Updated)



IMG_5627“I’ve got a few questions for you, then I’d like to make a statement and have you respond to the statement.”  So began a lengthy back and forth between Jeb Bush and a man at his Alton, New Hampshire town hall Monday night.

Bush’s questioner, who identified himself as Joe Castagnaro from Gilford, New Hampshire, had some preliminary questions on term limits, taxpayer funded elections and ALEC (the American Legislative Exchange Council) but his deepest focus was on Wall Street “crimes” and the repealed Glass-Steagall Act.  His description of asking Hillary Clinton whether she “would she reinstate the Glass-Steagall Act that her dirtbag husband repealed” drew some giggles from Bush and the audience.

Castagnaro passionately described the 2008 financial crisis as not a “bubble … crisis … [or] meltdown” but a “crime” that bankers should be in jail for.  He also declared that “when you’re president you’ll take your orders from” Wall Street.

Bush demonstrated some political deftness in the exchange, engaging his questioner and somewhat adopting the questioner’s concerns, but the moment also illustrates why Bush has had such a rough time.  He’s more naturally attuned to the financial services industry goal of deregulation than to the visceral anger and distrust of a man who has had his home foreclosed on.  That anger is the dominant pulse of the 2016 race and it’s just not Bush’s.  It’s also the case that Bush and his questioner fundamentally disagree on increasing financial regulation.  While both appear to want credit to be more readily available to borrowers, in reality they represent fundamentally different approaches.  Bush seeks a freer market, believing that will allow banks and other lenders to flourish with a resulting bounty of credit. His questioner appeared to believe that stricter regulation and control of banks, accompanied by increased criminal prosecutions, is  the path to easier credit.  While those views share a rejection of the recent past and current market, they’re ultimately dramatically divergent.

His town hall was well done in a nice setting with solid production and a crowd that perfectly packed the modest sized room to capacity, but this exchange ultimately demonstrates that he’s trying to grab onto the current Zeitgeist, not generating it.

Toward the end of their exchange Castagnaro said there’s “nothing I would rather do than vote for you”, but that the only two candidates tuned in to his view of “taking down the Wall Street banks” are Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders.

Kasich Q&A



Ohio Governor John Kasich briefly spoke with the press Monday following a campaign stop in Rochester, New Hampshire.  He offered praise for Lindsey Graham, saying that he would welcome Graham’s endorsement but has not yet asked for it, dismissed a characterization of his campaign as facing a “tough road” in the race saying that “I don’t kinda feel that way” and characterizing Marco Rubio’s call for candidates to pledge to “cancel” the Iran nuclear deal as “premature.”

Here’s his full Q&A:

Trump At The Plaza (Updated)



Trump At Plaza Hotel 12-11-15Donald Trump drew a crowd to Manhattan’s Plaza Hotel today, but he slipped in and out without encountering the protesters and gawkers waiting for him at the main entrance.  A crowd of about 200-300, along with a significant press contingent, gathered in anticipation of his appearance at a benefit luncheon.

Trump At Plaza Hotel 12-11-15

Seemingly split about evenly between people voicing opposition to Trump and those curious or drawn to the spectacle, their anticipation would be unsatisfied.  Aided by a bullhorn, a group steadily chanted anti-Trump slogans as his arrival drew near.  A single pro-Trump demonstrator wearing a sandwich board promoting a shooting range and a “Make America Great Again” hat meandered through the crowd, periodically bellowing out support for Trump.   The anti-Trump protesters tried chanting over him at times and held signs in front of him at one point, but he was largely left alone.

Trump At Plaza Hotel 12-11-15

 

On a raised spot on the side of the steps that glide up into the Plaza I squeezed in among a group of early teens from Tennessee.  Excited at having already seen Lady Gaga and, they thought, DJ from Full House on their maiden voyage to New York City they were eager to catch a glimpse of Donald Trump.  They liked New York, they said, but could do without the rudeness.  With a deep drawl one girl noted that New Yorkers “don’t say yes ma’am and no ma’am” and instead people “say F you to you”, reporting on instances of that occurring.  An Ohio teen also on our elevated observation post seemed quite familiar with Trump via Celebrity Apprentice.  Appearing reasonably familiar with the presidential race she nonetheless did not know that her state’s governor (John Kasich) is also in the race.

Trump At Plaza Hotel 12-11-15The crowd, already restless, began dispersing once word spread that Trump was inside.  By the time he left via a side exit more than an hour later few people remained and his departure was barely noticed.

Click here for our full photo gallery.

N.B.  According to news reports several people protested inside the luncheon and were forcibly ejected.

Pataki In NH – All About ISIS



Pataki - Keene NH 12-4-15Republican presidential candidate George Pataki’s most recent New Hampshire campaign swing was overwhelmingly focused on the San Bernardino attack and ISIS.  I joined two of his three open press events Friday; a visit to a retirement community in Lebanon, New Hampshire and an appearance at a Chesire County Republican Committee holiday party.

Pataki devoted most of his remarks at both events to the San Bernardino attack and ISIS, and most of the dozen or so questions posed to him focused on the same topics.

Pataki’s first stop was Quail Hollow, a booming retirement community just north of the center of Lebanon which is itself right in the middle of New Hampshire.  Pataki’s early evening visit to the dining room had the potential for catastrophe, as interrupting dinner can be a hazardous move for a politician.  As he walked around greeting the 35 or so residents seated for dinner Pataki quipped “escape now if you don’t want to hear me talk.”  A woman responded “we’ll listen to you, we’ll give you a chance.”  They did, listening closely and engaging with Pataki, albeit after another woman bellowed “Quiet!” as residents talked over Pataki initially.  He wisely warmed up the crowd by announcing that his mother’s 100th birthday is today (Monday).

Pataki - Lebanon NH 12-4-15

Continue reading Pataki In NH – All About ISIS

Happy Whatever



“Happy Whatever to all of you.  No Happy Holidays.”  That was George Pataki’s mangled attempt at fighting against the War on Christmas Friday evening.  Pataki began his remarks to a group of New Hampshire Republicans by criticizing generic holiday greetings, saying that “I refuse to” refer to his firm’s December party as a “holiday party”.

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Seemingly unaware of the contradiction, Pataki closed his remarks by saying “have a wonderful, wonderful holiday.”  The event he spoke at?  It was the Chesire County, New Hampshire Republicans “Holiday Gathering.”

Pataki’s Unfavorables



What’s not to like?

Former New York governor and largely unknown 2016 Republican presidential candidate George Pataki has remarkably high unfavorable ratings.  He barely registers in polling on who voters support, garnering 1% on good days, yet has extremely high negative ratings.  A Public Policy Polling survey released last Thursday reported that 16% of New Hampshire Republican primary voters view Pataki favorably while 45% view him unfavorably.  Pataki has received such skewed views since summer.  For example, a University of New Hampshire/WMUR poll released August 3rd reported a favorable rating from 18% of those polled, but an unfavorable rating from 43%.

Such high unfavorables are remarkable considering the lack of voter attention he’s received.  His campaign is virtually broke, unable to afford advertising, and the modest crowds he draws while campaigning don’t appear particularly hostile.

I asked Pataki about this decidedly negative view Friday, as he left a campaign appearance in Lebanon, New Hampshire.  Here’s what he had to say:

Kasich Continues



Kasich - Manchester NH 12/4/15Ohio Governor John Kasich continued his New Hampshire focus with a recent three day visit, trying to push his way into the top tier of candidates.  His visit featured four town halls, including a Manchester town hall Friday which I attended.

New Hampshire polls continue to have Kasich mid-pack with Trump, Carson, Cruz and Rubio ahead of him, although Carson appears to be fading.  Kasich has, like all of the non-Trump candidates, struggled for attention.  He has far more electoral office experience than any of the other “major” Republican candidates, with substantial state and federal experience, but that has not resonated with voters yet in this season of anti-government fervor.  (He has more time in elective office than Trump, Carson, Cruz and Rubio combined.)

Kasich - Manchester NH 12/4/15 Continue reading Kasich Continues

Kasich Press Q&A: The American Legion Edition



Ohio Governor John Kasich held a town hall this afternoon in Manchester, New Hampshire.  An audience of about 60 people came to Manchester’s  American Legion Sweeney Post 2 for an hour of Kasich conversation.

Kasich spoke with the press afterwards, fielding questions focused on the San Bernadino killings, including whether gun control is part of a solution, whether the attacks are “being politicized” and whether increased intelligence efforts should be directed at domestic plots and actions.  He rejected the notion of gun control, instead urging addressing intelligence-gathering challenges posed by encryption and returned to his oft-stated goal of increased mental health services.

I asked Kasich, who spoke powerfully about combating radical islamic terrorism,  how he can separate himself on this issue from the other Republican candidates.  “Imitation is the highest form of flattery” responded Kasich, saying that he was the first candidate to address ISIS.  “I don’t worry about that, I just do my job” he added.