As part of our continuing coverage of the Republican mayoral primary, we look at Republican voter registration by council district.*
The most basic challenge for all of the Republican candidates is finding and reaching their potential primary voters. Those potential primary voters are a small minority in the city, comprising 10% of all registered voters and only 6% of the total population. They are outnumbered by registered Democrats by more than 6 to 1.
That small universe is nearly sealed at this point. New voters may register as Republicans and vote in the primary, but currently registered voters who are not presently registered Republicans can’t vote in this year’s Republican primary, even if they change their registration. Candidates therefor have a nearly set universe of potential voters.
Here are a few observations:
- There is a strong concentration of registered Republicans in a fairly small number of districts. The top 13 districts, out of the 51 total districts, contain almost half of registered Republicans. The top five districts contain 25% of registered Republicans.
- Staten Island has the two highest enrollment totals, Districts 51 (Ignizio) and 50 (Oddo), and three of the top seven. (District 50 includes about 1,150 Kings County registered Republicans. Even without those Kings County voters, it remains as the second-largest Republican registration district.)
- District 51 is the only district in which registered Republicans outnumber Democrats.
- The districts of the four Republican council members, expected to endorse Joe Lhota today, contain over 96,000 registered Republicans. Those four districts account for 19.7% of the total Republican registration.
- Districts 4 and 5, held by Democrats Dan Garodnick and Jessica Lapin, respectively, provide a concentrated Manhattan lode of over 40,000 registered Republicans. (That may explain the Catsimatidis season-opening robocall I received.)
- Manhattan districts 6 and 3, held by Gail Brewer and Christine Quinn, respectively, are 11th and 16th on the list. Each of those districts has more Republicans than the district currently held by Peter Koo, who was elected as a Republican.
* We’ve used 4/1/12 enrollment statistics, as available on the New York City Board of Elections website. (Note that the total number of registered Republicans on 4/1/12 per the City BOE is 489,467, while the New York State Board of Elections lists total 485,872 enrolled Republicans as of that date. We’re still trying to reconcile the two different numbers.)
Be sure to read our first analysis of Republican registration, here.
In a future post, we’ll look at Republican voter turnout.