Presidential Pool: First Out?

IMG_3616It can’t last.  It won’t last.  The 17 candidate Republican primary field will shrink of course, the unknown is when and in what order.  Give us your best guess for the following three questions:

1)  Which of the 17 “major” Republican candidates will be the first to end his/her campaign?

2)  How many of these 17 candidates will still be in the race (actively campaigning) on the day of the New Hampshire primary?

3)  Who will win the Republican presidential nomination?

Email your guesses here, or tweet me at @jjk607.

Candidate Withdrawal Date
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Rick Perry
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
Scott Walker


Buddy The Cat (Updated)

Buddy the Cat is running for president.  Four “candidates” yesterday joined the ranks of those filing with the Federal Election Commission as 2016 presidential candidates, including Scott Walker and “Buddy the Cat.”  Including Buddy the Cat, there are now 545 declared 2016 presidential candidates.  (There’s no word on whether Pataki the Cat will join Buddy.)

It’s unclear whether the FEC will permit the “Buddy the Cat” filing to remain.  We’ve emailed the FEC with that question – we’ll update you when we hear back from them.

Update:  The FEC did not directly answer my question of whether the Commission would take any affirmative steps to review or investigate that filing.  A Commission rep replied more generally, stating that “the Reports Analysis Division (RAD) of the FEC reviews reports to ensure compliance with federal campaign finance laws and Commission regulations. If there appears to be any potential issues of noncompliance, RAD may send the filer a letter, called a Request for Additional Information (RFAI), to seek clarification or corrective action.”  Buddy the Cat’s filing remains on the FEC website as of August 21st.

N.B.  Here’s a look at the names the 17 “major” Republican candidates filed under and whether they’re complying with the legal requirements.

What’s In A Name (Updated)

“Name of Candidate (in full).” It seems like a simple instruction, but some of the 17 “major” Republican candidates were not able to comply with that simple directive on the Federal Election Commission form required of all presidential candidates.

Federal election law requires that every person running for president file a “Form 2 Statement of Candidacy”, listing their name, address, party affiliation and the name of their campaign committee.  It’s a one page form, as simple as it sounds.  A look at the 17 “major”declared Republican candidates revealed varying compliance with that directive.

Continue reading What’s In A Name (Updated)

He’s A Candidate – Walker Files (Updated)

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker today filed his formal “Statement of Candidacy” with the Federal Election Commission.  Although Walker made an announcement speech on July 13th and had separately created his campaign committee on July 2nd, he did not appear to have filed the “Form 2 – Statement of Candidacy” that candidates are required to file within 15 days of becoming a candidate.

In a review this week of the 17 “major” Republican candidates’ Form 2s, I noted that the FEC website contained 16 such forms, but none for Walker.  In an initial response the Walker campaign responded that they had filed a letter in lieu of the actual form.  From my reading of the relevant statue that’s permitted for candidates who do not expect to raise or spend more than $50,000, criteria that Walker did not meet.  (The FEC website did not include an image of any such letter filed by Walker.)

The FEC website now includes a Scott Walker Form 2 – Statement of Candidacy dated today, August 5, 2015.


Pataki Campaign Money: Chapter 2

IMG_3174The super PAC is super low on dough.

We The People, Not Washington, the super PAC supporting George Pataki’s presidential bid, reports having $67,000 on hand as of June 30th.  In comparison, Jeb Bush’s super PAC reported raising $103 million and having $97 million on hand.

We The People managed to raise about $859,000, but spent most of it.  As we’ve reported in detail, Pataki’s presidential campaign committee reported cash on hand of $207,000 as of June 30th.  Absent a marked increase in contributions to either or both of the super PAC and campaign committee Pataki’s longshot bid may not survive the summer.

Although Pataki was initially involved with the super PAC, like all presidential candidates he’s prohibited from “coordinating” with the super PAC(s) supporting him after his legal declaration of candidacy in early June.


We The People‘s contributor list is laden with longtime Pataki supporters.  That’s a natural base to start with and important to have, but it doesn’t appear deep enough to support Pataki’s candidacy into winter and spring 2016.  Topping the contributor list at $75,000 each are Earle Mack and John Catsimatidis’ company United Refining Company.  Mack is a real estate developer with a long Pataki relationship.  Catsimatidis has also long supported Pataki and received Pataki’s support during his 2013 mayoral campaign.

Continue reading Pataki Campaign Money: Chapter 2